📈 Global Trade Grew by $300 Billion in H1 2025 Despite Uncertainty, UN Report Finds
Global trade expanded by an estimated $300 billion in the first half of 2025, according to a new report from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) released Tuesday. However, the report cautions that momentum may slow in the coming months due to growing geopolitical tensions, policy instability, and global economic uncertainty.
The Global Trade Update reveals that trade grew 1.5% in Q1 and is expected to rise by 2% in Q2, driven primarily by increased service sector trade and rising prices, despite sluggish growth in trade volumes.
“Trade volumes rose by just 1%, while price increases boosted the overall value,” the report noted.
🔍 Key Highlights from the UNCTAD Report
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Global services trade was the standout performer, growing 9% over the past four quarters.
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Merchandise trade showed mixed performance: developed economies led the way, while developing countries lagged.
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The United States saw a 14% surge in imports, contributing to a growing trade deficit.
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The European Union reported a 6% increase in exports.
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Price growth, not volume, was the primary contributor to the $300 billion expansion.
⚠️ Risks of Trade Fragmentation on the Rise
UNCTAD also warned about the rising risk of global trade fragmentation, pointing specifically to recent U.S. tariff actions, including:
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A 10% baseline tariff on most imported goods,
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Additional duties targeting steel and aluminum imports.
These actions could lead to retaliatory trade barriers and damage long-term global cooperation.
“Further unilateral actions could spark a new wave of trade tensions,” the report said.
🌐 Outlook for Second Half of 2025
Despite the encouraging first-half numbers, the trade outlook for the second half of 2025 remains clouded by:
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Ongoing geopolitical conflicts,
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Currency fluctuations,
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Slowing global GDP growth,
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Policy unpredictability from major economies, including the United States and China.