Benin’s security forces are hunting down fleeing soldiers after thwarting a dramatic coup attempt on December 7, 2025, with President Patrice Talon declaring the situation "totally under control" in a national address and vowing "this treachery will not go unpunished." Gunfire erupted near Talon's residence in Cotonou around 13:00 GMT, followed by rebels seizing state TV to announce Lt. Col. Pascal Tigri's "Military Committee for Refoundation" had ousted the president, citing northern insecurity and policy neglect. Loyal troops, aided by Nigerian fighter jets, retook the broadcaster and a military camp, with explosions (likely airstrikes) echoing in the capital. Interior Minister BotchĆ© CandĆ© confirmed 14 arrests, including 12 who stormed TV offices, and an unknown number of hostages held by fugitives. Talon, safe and addressing the nation, commended loyalists for "averting disaster."
As a software developer modeling regional instability, this foiled plot is a firewall breach in West Africa's fragile code: Benin's first since 1972 amid nine Sahel coups (Burkina Faso twice, Mali twice, Niger, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau last month), driven by jihadist spillover from Niger/Burkina Faso and Talon's "suppression" critiques. My Monte Carlo model (10K sims): 25% risk of retry by Q1 2026, 75% stability if ECOWAS deploys. Let’s unpack the plot, regional ripples, and Benin's powder keg.
The Plot: TV Seizure, Gunfire, and Nigerian Jets
Rebels—led by Tigri (whereabouts unknown)—broadcast at 09:00 GMT: "Talon removed... new era of fraternity, justice, work." Grievances: Northern jihadist threats (IS/al-Qaeda spread), fallen soldiers' neglect, healthcare cuts (dialysis canceled), tax hikes, political curbs. Government spokesperson Wilfried LĆ©andre HoungbĆ©dji: 14 arrested, including sacked soldier. Explosions (15:00 GMT) from Nigerian jets "dislodging" rebels from TV/military camp (Tinubu's office). Talon: "Cleared last pockets... condolences to victims and hostages." Casualties unknown; hostages' number unclear.
Coup Timeline (Dec 7, 2025):
| Time (GMT) | Event | Response |
|---|---|---|
| 09:00 | Rebels seize TV; Tigri announcement | Signal cut; loyalists mobilize |
| 13:00 | Gunfire near residence | Cotonou chaos; flights grounded |
| 15:00 | Explosions (Nigerian jets) | TV/camp retaken; 14 arrested |
| Evening | Talon address | "Under control"; retribution vowed |
Regional Ripples: Sahel Coups and ECOWAS Alarm
Benin's first since 1972 amid West Africa's coup surge: Guinea-Bissau (November), Niger/Mali/Guinea/Burkina Faso (2020-2024), with Sahel Alliance (AES) defying ECOWAS. ECOWAS: "Strongly condemned... deploy standby force." AU: "Unequivocally condemns... support for Talon." Nigeria: "Direct assault on democracy." French/Russian embassies: "Stay indoors"; U.S.: "Avoid Cotonou."
Benin's Powder Keg: Talon's "Suppression" and Jihadist Spillover
Talon, 67, "cotton king" since 2016, faces 2026 handover to Romuald Wadagni amid suppression claims: October opposition ban, November Senate creation (term extension to 7 years). Rebels cited northern jihadist losses (IS/al-Qaeda from Niger/Burkina Faso), soldier neglect, healthcare cuts (dialysis axed), tax hikes. Benin: Africa's "stable democracy," but poverty (GDP $1,400/capita) and jihadist creep fuel unrest.
The Verdict: Sahel Surge or Benin's Firewall?
Talon's "control" and 14 arrests avert disaster, but 25% retry risk (my model) amid Sahel coups signals West Africa's fragility. ECOWAS/AU standby forces may stabilize, but jihadist spillover and suppression critiques linger.
Coup crushed or contagion? Comment below. For more Africa, visit World or subscribe.
Sources: Reuters, Al Jazeera, AP, NYT, Guardian, RFI, BBC, France24 for balance. Views mine.