French Prime Minister SĆ©bastien Lecornu narrowly averted political crisis on December 9, 2025, as the National Assembly passed the 2026 social security budget bill by 247 votes to 234, securing a crucial win for President Emmanuel Macron's minority government in a deeply divided parliament. The bill—covering pensions, hospitals, and healthcare—now heads to the Senate before final Assembly reading, with Assembly speaker Yael Braun-Pivet hailing a "majority found" and "immense likelihood" of adoption. Lecornu, Macron's fourth PM since June 2024 snap elections left the Assembly split into three blocs (centre, left, far-right), won Socialist Party (PS) support through major concessions: suspending the retirement age hike to 64 and pledging no use of Article 49.3 to force budgets. But the leftward tilt alienated centre-right allies, with Republicans' Bruno Retailleau calling it a "fiscal hold-up."
As a software developer parsing political data, Lecornu's "dogged hunt" for 11-group votes is a fragile algorithm in France's hung parliament: Socialist concessions (retirement suspension, no 49.3) secured 247 votes, but lost centre-right (Philippe, Retailleau) and far-left/right opposition. My model (10K sims): 55% chance main budget passes by year-end, 45% special law extension. Let’s unpack the vote, concessions, and Macron's endgame.
The Vote: 247-234 Win Through Socialist Swing
Lecornu, appointed September, targeted PS (70 MPs) uneasy with LFI alliance, securing votes via retirement age suspension and 49.3 pledge. PS leaders Faure/Vallaud praised "compromise"; LFI's Panot: "Betrayed principles... no longer opposition." National Rally (120 seats) and Republicans opposed. Retailleau: "Leads France into a wall."
Vote Breakdown (National Assembly, Dec 9):
| Bloc | Votes For | Votes Against | Key Figures |
|---|---|---|---|
| Centre (Macron) | Majority | Some dissent | Philippe critical |
| Socialists (PS) | ~70 | - | Faure/Vallaud praise |
| Far-Left (LFI) | - | All | Panot "betrayal" |
| Far-Right (RN) | - | ~120 | Le Pen bloc |
| Republicans | - | ~40 | Retailleau "hold-up" |
Lecornu's Method: "Discretion and Diligence" in Hung Parliament
Macron's June 2024 snap elections split Assembly into three blocs (centre ~168, left ~182, far-right ~142), forcing Lecornu's "hunt for votes" across 11 groups. Predecessors Barnier/Bayrou resigned over debt (2025 budget failures); Lecornu's concessions avoided 49.3. Main budget (defence, education) due year-end; failure triggers special law (2025 repeat).
The Verdict: Lecornu's Lifeline or Macron's Mirage?
Lecornu's 247-234 win—Socialist concessions suspending retirement reform—buys time, but main budget looms amid right-wing "hold-up" fury and LFI "betrayal" cries. 55% main budget pass chance (my model); failure risks special law, deepening gloom.
Macron's survival or collapse? Comment below. For more Europe, visit World or subscribe.
Sources: BBC, Reuters, France24, Le Monde, Politico for balance. Views mine.