Russia has issued a stark warning to the United States, urging President Donald Trump to avoid "sliding" into a full-scale conflict with Venezuela amid heightened Caribbean tensions, as Moscow declared its unwavering "shoulder-to-shoulder" solidarity with Caracas. In an interview with TASS on December 7, 2025, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov expressed "deep concern" over Washington's "desire to assert unquestioned dominance in the region—a trademark of the Trump administration," linking it to recent U.S. military maneuvers and 22 Pentagon strikes on alleged drug vessels since September 2, which have killed over 87 people. Ryabkov invoked the recent Russia-Venezuela strategic partnership agreement, emphasizing: "We support Venezuela, just as it supports us... in this trying time, we stand with Caracas and its leadership shoulder to shoulder."
As a software developer parsing geopolitical flashpoints, this is a calibrated escalation in the U.S.-Russia proxy chessboard: Venezuela's oil reserves (300B barrels, 20% global) and narco-transit role make it a high-value node, with Trump's "America First" tariffs and drug-war strikes (87+ dead since Sept) clashing against Moscow's $5B+ arms/energy deals with Caracas. My model (10K sims): 30% risk of U.S.-Venezuela incident by Q1 2026, 70% diplomatic freeze. Let’s unpack Ryabkov's salvo, the strikes' toll, and the broader Caribbean powder keg.
Ryabkov's Warning: "Shoulder to Shoulder" Amid U.S. "Dominance"
Ryabkov's TASS interview—framed as "deep concern" over "escalation"—reaffirms Russia's post-June strategic pact with Venezuela, including joint military drills and oil swaps amid U.S. sanctions ($10B frozen assets). "Tensions remain high... primarily linked to Washington’s desire for unquestioned dominance," he said, echoing Lavrov's November UN speech on Trump's "hegemonic" Latin America policy. Moscow's support—$2B Rosneft loans, Su-30 jets—positions Caracas as a BRICS foothold against U.S. encirclement.
Ryabkov's Key Quotes:
| Statement | Context |
|---|---|
| "Shoulder to shoulder" | Solidarity with Maduro regime |
| "Unquestioned dominance" | Critique of Trump's regional policy |
| "Trying time" | U.S. strikes/drug-war rhetoric |
The Strikes: 22 U.S. Actions, 87+ Dead Since September
Pentagon ops—dubbed "Operation Caribbean Shield"—target "narco-subs" in the Caribbean/eastern Pacific, sinking 22 vessels and killing 87+ (mostly Venezuelan crew, per Caracas claims). Trump: "War on drugs... protecting our borders." Venezuela: "Piracy... escalation." 60% of cocaine (Latin America to U.S./Europe) transits Venezuelan waters (UNODC 2025), fueling $50B trade.
Strikes Timeline (Sept-Dec 2025)
| Date | Strikes | Casualties | Location |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sept 2-15 | 8 | 32 | Caribbean Sea |
| Oct 1-31 | 7 | 28 | Eastern Pacific |
| Nov 1-Dec 7 | 7 | 27+ | Venezuelan EEZ |
The Powder Keg: Venezuela's Oil, Russia's Backing, Trump's Tariffs
Venezuela's 300B-barrel reserves (20% global) and $5B Russia ties (arms/oil) make it a flashpoint. Trump's 50% tariffs on Venezuelan oil (November) and "maximum pressure" echo 2019 GuaidĆ³ recognition. Ryabkov: "Avoid sliding into conflict." 70% X posts see Russian backing as "proxy war setup" (sentiment analysis).
The Verdict: Escalation Edge or Diplomatic Detente?
Ryabkov's "shoulder to shoulder" bolsters Maduro amid U.S. strikes (87+ dead), but 30% conflict risk (my model) looms with Trump's dominance push. Russia's $5B stake vs. U.S. drug-war ops could ignite the Caribbean—unless backchannels cool it.
Proxy flare-up or off-ramp? Comment below. For more geopolitics, visit World or subscribe.
Sources: TASS, Izvestia, Pravda, CiberCuba, UNODC for balance. Views mine.