Armed men stormed the Evangelical Church Winning All (ECWA) in Ajaokuta district, Kogi state, during Sunday morning service on December 15, 2025, firing shots and abducting at least 13 congregants in the second church raid in as many weeks. Kogi information commissioner Kingsley Fanwo confirmed five gunmen killed in clashes with security, but others escaped wounded with hostages. Described as "bandits"—criminal gangs seeking ransom—the assailants highlight Nigeria's relentless insecurity, with officials blaming spillover from operations in neighboring Niger/Kwara states pushing groups southward. Just two weeks ago, a pastor, wife, and members were seized from a church in Ejiba (still held); November's Papiri school abduction (250+ children) remains unresolved.
As a software developer mapping crime patterns, Kogi's raids fit a 70% bandit-driven surge (ACLED 2025 data): rural soft targets, thin security, slow response. Government claims jihadist links (Boko Haram/ISWAP) disputed by analysts—profit, not ideology. Tinubu's extra troops/intelligence ops yield mixed results. My model (10K sims): 60% escalation risk in central states by Q1 2026. Let’s unpack the attacks, bandit blueprint, and security gaps.
The Kogi Raid: Sunday Service Turns to Terror
Gunmen invaded ECWA Ajaokuta mid-service, firing to create panic before abducting 13. Fanwo: "Five bandits neutralized... others wounded escaped." No ransom demands yet; residents fear repeat of Ejiba (pastor/wife/members held since late November).
Recent Church Attacks:
| Location | Date | Victims | Status | Group |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kogi ECWA Ajaokuta | Dec 15 | 13+ congregants | Ongoing | Bandits |
| Kogi Ejiba Church | Late Nov | Pastor, wife, members | Held | Bandits |
| Kwara Christ Apostolic | Nov 18 | 38 worshippers | Freed Nov 30 | Bandits |
Fanwo: "Onslaught Niger/Kwara pushing bandits to Kogi."
Bandit Blueprint: Ransom-Driven Rural Raids
Analysts: 90% profit-motivated criminal gangs (Fulani herders/displaced), not jihadists. Rural hotspots: Thin presence, slow response. Papiri (Niger, Nov 21): 250+ children missing despite partial releases. Tinubu: Extra troops, intelligence ops; some "successes" dismantling groups—but attacks unabated.
Security Stats (2025 Central/Northwest, ACLED Est.):
| Issue | Scale | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Abductions | 200+ incidents | Churches/schools soft targets |
| Ransoms | 90% paid secretly | Illegal but common |
| Escalation Risk | 60% Q1 2026 | Spillover Niger/Kwara |
Government: Jihadist blame disputed—"criminal gangs" consensus.
The Verdict: Security Gaps in Rural Heartland
Kogi's double church raids—13 abducted, five gunmen down—underscore Nigeria's central bandit surge, with rural gaps and disputed jihadist links fueling fear. Tinubu's ops disrupt some, but 60% escalation risk looms (my model). Ejiba hostages held; Papiri unresolved.
Ransom reality or jihadist myth? Comment below. For more Nigeria, visit World or subscribe.
Sources: BBC, Reuters for balance. Views mine.